Report Shows Global Warming Causing Huge, Fast Tree Species Migration In West

Report Shows Global Warming Causing Huge, Fast Tree Species Migration In West

Posted on Friday, November 04, 2011 (PST)

Report Shows Global Warming Causing Huge, Fast Tree Species Migration In West
Posted on Friday, November 04, 2011 (PST)

A huge “migration” of trees has begun across much of the West due to global warming, insect attack, diseases and fire, and many tree species are projected to decline or die out in regions where they have been present for centuries, while others move in and replace them.

In an enormous display of survival of the fittest, the forests of the future are taking a new shape.

In a new report, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/~waring/Publications/pdf/RSE-in%20press_Aug%2022%202011.pdf, scientists outline the impact that a changing climate will have on which tree species can survive, and where. The study suggests that many species that were once able to survive and thrive are losing their competitive footholds, and opportunistic newcomers will eventually push them out.

In some cases, once-common species such as lodgepole pine will be replaced by other trees, perhaps a range expansion of ponderosa pine or Douglas-fir. Other areas may shift completely out of forest into grass savannah or sagebrush desert. In central California, researchers concluded that more than half of the species now present would not be expected to persist in the climate conditions of the future.

“Some of these changes are already happening, pretty fast and in some huge areas,” said Richard Waring, professor emeritus at Oregon State University and lead author of the study. “In some cases the mechanism of change is fire or insect attack, in others it’s simply drought.

“We can’t predict exactly which tree (species) will die or which one will take its place, but we can see the long-term trends and probabilities,” Waring said. “The forests of our future are going to look quite different.”

Waring said tree species that are native to a local area or region are there because they can most effectively compete with other species given the specific conditions of temperature, precipitation, drought, cold-tolerance and many other factors that favor one species over another in that location.

As those climatic conditions change, species that have been established for centuries or millennia will lose their competitive edge, Waring said, and slowly but surely decline or disappear.

This survey, done with remote sensing of large areas over a four-year period, compared 15 coniferous tree species that are found widely across much of the West in Canada and the United States. The research explored impacts on 34 different “eco-regions” ranging from the Columbia Plateau to the Sierra Nevada, Snake River Plain and Yukon Highlands.

It projected which tree species would be at highest risk of disturbance in a future that’s generally expected to be 5-9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2080, with perhaps somewhat more precipitation in the winter and spring, and less during the summer.

Among the findings:

— Some of the greatest shifts in tree species are expected to occur in both the northern and southern extremes of this area, such as British Columbia, Alberta, and California.

— Large declines are expected in lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce, and more temperate species such as Douglas-fir and western hemlock may expand their ranges.

— Many wilderness areas are among those at risk of the greatest changes, and will probably be the first to experience major shifts in tree species.

— Some of the mild, wetter areas of western Oregon and Washington will face less overall species change than areas of the West with a harsher climate.

— More than half of the evergreen species are experiencing a significant decrease in their competitiveness in six eco-regions.

— Conditions have become more favorable for outbreaks of diseases and insects.

— Warming will encourage growth at higher elevations and latitudes, and increased drought at the other extremes. Fire frequency will continue to increase across the West, and any tree species lacking drought resistance will face special challenges.

“Ecosystems are always changing at the landscape level, but normally the rate of change is too slow for humans to notice,” said Steven Running, the University of Montana Regents Professor and a co-author of the study. “Now the rate of change is fast enough we can see it.”

Even though the rate of change has increased, these processes will take time, the scientists said. A greater stability of forest composition will not be attained anytime soon, perhaps for centuries.

“There’s not a lot we can do to really control these changes,” Waring said. “For instance, to keep old trees alive during drought or insect attacks that they are no longer able to deal with, you might have to thin the forest and remove up to half the trees. These are very powerful forces at work.”

One of the best approaches to plan for an uncertain future, the researchers said, is to maintain “connective corridors” as much as possible so that trees can naturally migrate to new areas in a changing future and not be stopped by artificial boundaries.

Also collaborating on the research was Nicholas Coops at the University of British Columbia. The work has been supported by NASA, and the study is being published in two professional journals, Ecological Modeling and Remote Sensing of Environment.

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About Kent Cannon

My passion is fishing and hunting as well as traveling throughout the Northwest and writing about those adventures. I was separated from my job a few years ago due to the still ongoing economic downturn. I had spent years working, focusing on things that really were not near and dear to my heart all the while scrambling and climbing to what I perceived as the top. I of course did not realize what I was doing, because I was caught up in the moment, focusing on what I thought was the American dream. Crashing and pushing ever forward like a Lemming headed for a cliff, oblivious the world around me. I was more than a little bitter over loosing my job; it was a good job as far as jobs go and I was making a lot of money so I could live according to the manner in which I wanted to be accustomed. In the process of trying to find another job in an unfavorable economic climate I found something that I had left behind many years ago. I found me! That is how and why I started this website, looking for myself and sharing things that I found along the way. Even though I am older now, suffering a little from arthritis and my hair is now somewhat graying I still have fire in my belly for the next adventure. The more that I seek out my next adventure, the more excited I become!

One Response to Report Shows Global Warming Causing Huge, Fast Tree Species Migration In West

  1. Kent Cannon says:

    I am not in favor of the term, “Global Warming” used in this post. I did not write it as per the link at the bottom of the page. I prefer the term, “Climatic Shift” since that is a more accurate representation of the changes to our world climate. Changes have taken place on our planet for millions of years, take the cooling that led to the ice age, and then to our present climatic condition. “Global Warming” is a term cooked up for political purposes which also has deep financial founded roots.
    I am sure that the current climatic shift does have some influences by pollution, however limited on a grander scale. One volcano emits more into the atmosphere, much more than all of the cars on earth since they were manufactured. Volcanic SO2 emissions can range up to 10 million tonnes per day so put that in your pipe and smoke it…

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